Denver Gold Forum 2014

There was a bumper sticker that became popular in the oil patch in the early eighties that read something like: “Please God, give me one more oil boom. I promise not to blow it next time.” This is a sentiment that is likely shared amongst gold equity participants for a) another boom in gold prices is surely coming and b) boy, did we ever blow it last time ‘round. It bears reflecting on why gold equity performance was so poor in the last cycle, because if the root causes of the abysmal returns are not identified, then surely history will repeat. Are portfolio managers in the gold sector just really bad investors? Are sell-side analysts thoroughly incompetent? Are the gold producers just plain irresponsible stewards of capital? Or is there something inherent to the sector that militates against investor returns in a rising gold prices environment? We believe there is substantial merit to this last thesis. The gold industry is very small relative to the size of capital pools looking to “get in” and, when macro conditions turn favorable, highly inelastic in efficiently accommodating the resulting inbound flows. In a word, the dreadful performance seen last cycle is evidence that the gold price is far too low to sustain a healthy industry and, by consequence, commensurate healthy returns. The key to acceptable performance in the coming years is acknowledgment of as much and, then, effective communication to the investor community that, unless we see a much higher gold price, investor returns can be expected to be dreadful once again.

Systemic risks revealed during 2008 highlighted the value of assets uncorrelated to the financial system. Six years later, rates remain near record lows even as global debts continue exponential growth. Despite the widespread complacency, the need for systemic insurance has never been higher. Physical gold is the only tangible, non-financial asset that is always liquid and practical to own without involving the financial system. This unique combination of liquidity and independence from currencies and financial institutions makes gold an ideal, and significantly undervalued, source of insurance and diversification.

Martin Murenbeeld is the Chief Economist of Dundee Capital Markets. Dr. Murenbeeld graduated from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1972 with a PhD in international finance. He then joined the Faculty of Management Studies at the University of Toronto to develop the international business curriculum in the MBA program. He left the Faculty in 1978 to start M. Murenbeeld & Associates Inc. The company moved from Toronto to Victoria in 1989, where it continued to consult international clients on developments in the gold, foreign exchange and credit markets, and international economic trends before it was acquired by DundeeWealth Inc. in July, 2004. The principals of DundeeWealth Economics have over 60 years of combined experience providing independent analysis and advice on economic and financial developments, with special emphasis on North American interest rate and currency market trends – and on trends in the gold market. Their reports include the Economic Monitor, which forecasts general economic trends occurring in North America and abroad, the Gold Monitor, which forecasts gold market trends, the Financial Monitor, which forecasts economic, interest rate and foreign exchange market trends, and the Bond and Stock Monitor, which assists with decisions related to asset allocation. Frequently quoted in the financial press and a regular speaker at international precious metals and foreign exchange market conferences, Dr. Murenbeeld has over 30 years of independent consulting experience in the gold, currency and credit markets and is currently also an adjunct professor (international finance) in the Faculty of Business at the University of Victoria.